Oilers hoping to end longtime suffering in Minnesota

Hockey Betting Lines

03/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last thing that the Edmonton Oilers need at this point in the season is a trip to Minnesota. The road-weary club will try to snap its 12-game slide in the Twin Cities, where the Wild shoot for a third straight victory tonight at Xcel Energy Center.

The Oilers have lost all three games thus far on their swing despite scoring 11 goals. Edmonton, though, has allowed 15 goals on the trek to run its overall road losing streak to five games. The team has also dropped 16 of its last 17 on the road, where it is just 8-23-3 this season.

Edmonton made a stop in Columbus on Monday and was dealt a 5-3 setback. Robert Nilsson and Aaron Johnson had a goal and an assist each and Dustin Penner also scored for the Oilers, who have lost four straight overall. Devan Dubnyk added 24 saves in the setback.

"Early on in the game we got wide open," Oilers head coach Pat Quinn said. "It was like line rushes for both teams. We had chances going their way, too. A lot of missed positioning. It was a competitive night. Certainly at the start of the third period our veterans let us down a little bit. Two quick [Columbus] goals in the first few minutes, both [on] turnovers and bad checking. It's disappointing."

Already with the likes of Nikolai Khabibulin, Ales Hemsky and Sheldon Souray on injured reserve, the Oilers scratched Ladislav Smid (neck), Patrick O'Sullivan (hand), Ryan Jones (MCL) and Fernando Pisani (groin) last night due to injuries.

Edmonton has also dropped five of its last seven overall, but one of those two victories came against the Wild on March 5, when the Oilers managed a 2-1 shootout triumph. Mike Comrie had the lone goal in regulation for Edmonton and also scored the decisive goal in the sixth round of the shootout.

The Wild and Oilers have split their four meetings so far this year, with each club winning twice on home ice. Minnesota has also won seven of its last 11 versus Edmonton and hasn't lost at home to the Oilers since Jan. 16, 2007, outscoring them 43-14 as the host in that span.

Guillaume Latendresse scored for the Wild in the March 5 loss to the Oilers, part of a span in which he has scored nine goals over 13 games. The forward has a career-high 25 goals on the season, with 23 of those coming in 43 games since being acquired by Minnesota from Montreal on Nov. 23.

Latendresse also had a goal in Sunday's 4-2 win over St. Louis, Minnesota's second victory in a row after an 0-2-2 skid. Mikko Koivu had a goal and two assists, while Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen both scored and added a helper.

Minnesota, which improved to 22-9-3 at home this year, enters this game eight points back of a playoff spot with 14 games to play.

"We have to win the games coming up," said Wild goaltender Josh Harding after making 35 saves. "We were ready to play, and we got a big win. [The Blues are] a great hockey club -- you got to give them all the credit in the world. Fortunately, we came out on top."

Harding made his third straight start in place of Niklas Backstrom, who is unlikely to play again tonight due to a groin injury.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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