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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is the usual suspects that are destined to do the most damage in Las Vegas this week, as the members of the Mountain West Conference descend on the Thomas & Mack Center for the 11th annual conference tournament.
All season long there was a tug-of-war going on between New Mexico and BYU and in the end the Lobos (28-3, 14-2) won out and captured the regular-season title and the top seed in this event, while the Cougars (28-4, 13-3) continued to fight hard and placed second in the standings. Both UNLV and San Diego State had their moments, but the inconsistency from game-to-game meant that investing too much faith in either program would certainly break one's heart. As a result, each team finished at 11-5 in conference, with the tie-breaker going to the host team in this event and the Aztecs being the fourth seed.
Any one of the four aforementioned programs have a strong chance of raising the trophy and earning the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and by the same token, the other five teams in the MWC are long shots to get beyond the quarterfinal round on Thursday.
Actually, the tourney begins on Wednesday when ninth-seeded Air Force and eighth-seeded Wyoming clash in the desert. The Falcons (9-20, 1-15) started off the season well enough with four wins in five games, but even the academy couldn't convince itself that victories over Western State, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern and NC Central were worthy statements to say that the team had finally arrived. In fact, the Falcons won just five games from then on and just one in conference, against Wyoming at home as it were. Air Force, one of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation with a mere 56.7 ppg, again had a strong defense as it allowed just 63.5 ppg, but there were just too many times when Air Force was overwhelmed and outplayed. Grant Parker finished the season scoring 12.9 ppg, but because he did not participate in 75 percent of the squad's games he failed to earn a spot in the league's top-20 in scoring.
As for the Cowboys (10-20, 3-13), losing Afam Muojeke to injury prevented them from being competitive down the stretch. In fact, the team won just two games after he went down, and one of those was against Air Force last week at home. Wyoming is listed as the fourth-highest scoring team in the league with 71.7 ppg, but that is rather misleading given that the team cranked out a combined 243 points in just two games against Peru State and Adams State. Take away those two romps and the Pokes were less than ordinary, especially with the defense giving up a league-high 75 ppg in 2009-10. With A.J. Davis now out of action, that takes another 10.0 ppg off the books and leaves the Cowboys wondering what happened to their season.
Unfortunately, either Air Force or Wyoming is going to advance on Wednesday night, and when it does it will see nationally-ranked New Mexico waiting in the wings. As hyped as the Lobos are these days the Falcons and Cowboys, two teams that have still not won an MWC Tournament title, have to be somewhat confident seeing as how both programs took UNM to the brink at some point this season before being turned away. Because of some of those isolated struggles, the Lobos are third in the conference in scoring margin at plus-10.1 ppg, trailing both BYU and UNLV. What UNM does have going in its favor is senior leadership in Roman Martinez (14.1 ppg), and surprising input from newcomer Darington Hobson (15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 143 assists). Because of Martinez and Hobson, the Lobos recently ranked as high as 33rd in the country with more than eight three-pointers per game. Add Dairese Gary (12.4 ppg) and Phillip McDonald (10.9 ppg) to the list of contributors and any one of them have the potential to take over a game and lead the Lobos to the next level.
Assuming New Mexico will make it out of the quarterfinals, waiting for the Lobos will be either fourth-seeded San Diego State or fifth-seeded Colorado State in the semis. The Aztecs (22-8, 11-5) lost both of their meetings against UNM during the regular season, but they too played a close game versus the Lobos later in the campaign and took them to overtime before bowing by a basket. Head coach Steve Fisher and his squad has a lot to prove after the team lost by two points in the title game last season to Utah and it begins by letting the rest of the league know that they will struggle to score points against the top defense in the MWC, with SDSU allowing just 61.8 ppg. Kawhi Leonard was a great addition to the Aztecs lineup this season, averaging 12.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per outing, although his mere 19.7 percent shooting from three-point range took some of the luster off his efforts. Malcolm Thomas (11.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg) was another key ingredient to the squad's success. However, the most frustrating aspect of the Aztecs is that they leave far too many points on the floor with a miserable 60.8 percent shooting at the free- throw line.
The Rams (16-14, 7-9) beat the teams that they should have in the conference, but at the same time had some truly awful efforts against the top-tier schools mixed in as well. CSU lost to the Aztecs by double digits in both regular- season meetings, so that in itself doesn't bode well for this group. Were it not for a 76-67 win over Utah on Saturday, Colorado State would be heading into the postseason with a lengthy losing streak. The offense for the Rams was not one to light up the scoreboard, producing just 66.3 ppg to rank second-to- last in the MWC ahead of only Air Force. Andy Ogide sits atop the scoring list for the team with his 11.9 ppg, having shot 54.2 percent from the field. He is also first on the glass with 6.6 rpg as well, but those numbers don't begin to make up for the fact that he delivered just 27 assists in 30 games. Dorian Green and Travis Franklin were responsible for 11.7 and 10.6 ppg, respectively, but even though the former accounted for a team-best 71 assists, there's no getting past his mere 35.0 percent shooting from the field.
Because the Lobos are the talk of the conference, the one team that might be able to fly under the radar somewhat is second-seeded BYU which has one of the top scoring threats in the nation in Jimmer Fredette. The Cougars, a unit with one of the largest scoring margins in all of college basketball this season at plus- 18.7 ppg, showed great balance on both offense and defense, which is why seventh-seeded TCU is in for a rude awakening in the desert this week.
BYU, which crushed the Horned Frogs (13-18, 5-11) in the regular-season finale on Saturday with a 107-77 rout in Fort Worth, was among the top scoring teams in the nation this season with 83.1 ppg and much of the credit goes to Fredette and his 20.6 ppg. A three-point specialist with his 47.2 percent accuracy out on the perimeter, Fredette showed great range and the ability to slash through defenses to get to the rim and force contact, so much so that he shot 171-of-194 at the free-throw line. When the shot wasn't there for Fredette he was more than happy to give up the ball and let a teammate share the spotlight, which is why he was able to tally a team-best 141 assists. Jackson Emery (12.6 ppg) and Tyler Haws (11.4 ppg) were also big contributors from the starting lineup, but the one player that many forget about is Jonathan Tavernari because he seemingly lost his touch in the early part of the season and then ended up coming off the bench. Tavernari (10.5 ppg) doesn't get much of the glory anymore, but he is no less important to this program.
TCU, just 1-4 in this tournament since joining the Mountain West a few years back, may have shown its true colors back on November 24th when it needed three overtime periods just to get past Texas State at home. Of the five wins the Frogs logged in conference play, four came against Air Force and Wyoming, just a few more reasons why BYU should feel comfortable in the quarterfinals. Ronnie Moss, one of the nation's leaders in assists with 185 over the course of 31 games, is also the leading scorer for the group with his 14.6 ppg. However, as crucial as Moss is to the offense, his 39.7 percent shooting from the field doesn't scare too many opponents. Imports Zvonko Buljan and Edvinas Ruzgas kick in another 12.4 and 10.7 ppg, respectively, the former also standing in to clear 8.6 rpg. Because he plays so well in the paint, one would think that Buljan would have been instructed to refrain from letting loose from three-point range where he is just 26.9 percent accurate. Because of size restrictions placed on Air Force players its understood that the Falcons will struggle on the glass and when it comes to blocked shots, but TCU was only fractions ahead of the academy in the latter category with just two rejections per game.
Always a favorite to come out on top in this tourney, especially since the games are played on their home floor, the third-seeded UNLV Runnin' Rebels (23-7, 11-5) will be gunning for their fourth crown and the third in the last four years when they begin with a quarterfinals meeting against sixth-seeded Utah, the defending tournament champion. UNLV finished the regular season with the second-best scoring margin in the league with a plus-10.5 ppg, but the moment it looked like the Rebels were about to assert themselves in the conference they ended up dropping the ball. Following their crushing win over BYU the first week of February, the team turned around and promptly dropped three straight, so you have to wonder which version is going to show up for this tourney. Leading scorer Tre'Von Willis had his share of strong games for the group, averaged 20.3 ppg in MWC outings and was also second on the team overall with 103 assists, but all of that still didn't disguise the fact that he shot only 29.8 percent behind the three-point line. Chace Stanback (12.3 ppg) came on strong late in the campaign, but at the same time Oscar Bellfield (9.3 ppg) began to slow down.
A far cry from last year's team that ended up winning this tournament for the second time, the Utes (14-16, 7-9) were the worst in the conference when it came to turnover margin this season and that's just one of the reasons why Utah finished in the middle of the pack and was rather average all-around. Ranked seventh in the league in scoring, Carlon Brown (12.6 ppg) was the one who often appeared at the top of the scoring chart for the program, but what does it say about a team when the top scorer is someone who comes off the bench. Despite his freshman status, Marshall Henderson was also a factor on offense for the Utes with his 12.0 ppg, although his mere 37.5 percent shooting from the field left a lot to be desired. Putting up a tough defense was the one thing that kept the Utes in contention in so many outings, limiting teams to just 40.9 percent shooting from the field and 30.1 percent behind the three-point line, but the squad was desperate to still find offense of its own in order to succeed at a higher level.
<< 2010 Big West Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 35th annual Big West Conference
Tournament will once again take place at the Anaheim Convention Center Arena
for a tenth straight season. The bottom four seeds of the eight-team field
will take part in fi
<< Bruins hope to bolster playoff chances vs. Maple Leafs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins will try to bolster their playoff hopes
when they visit the last-place Toronto Maple Leafs for tonight's clash between
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Heat in playoff contention. But, first he has to figure out a way to beat the
Charlotte Bobcats when the two teams collide Tuesday in the Tar Heel State.
The Bobcats
<< IUPUI and Oakland collide for Summit League title
Sioux Falls, SD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The IUPUI Jaguars and the Oakland Golden
Grizzlies will battle tonight in the championship game of the Summit League
Tournament. The prize for the winner is an automatic bid to the NCAA
Tournament.
IUPUI,
Slumping Lakers target win vs. Raptors >>
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The Lakers dropped their
Thrashers, Predators both aim to avoid third straight loss >>
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consecutive losses tonight when the Atlanta Thrashers host the Nashville
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2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th Annual Big Ten Conference
Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 11th from Conseco Fieldhouse in
Indianapolis, Indiana. Purdue is the defending tournament champion, having
topped Ohio State in l
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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